Understanding the Nations Indexes
Each Nations Index measures a distinct dimension of options market pricing for the selected symbol.
VolDex
Measures precisely at-the-money implied volatility for the selected symbol. VolDex represents the market's consensus expectation of near-term price swings — a higher reading signals greater expected volatility. It is the purest options-market read on uncertainty.
CallDex
Measures the normalized price of the call option that is precisely one standard deviation out-of-the-money (i.e., 16 delta), reflecting demand for upside exposure. Rising CallDex signals traders are paying more for calls — a sign of growing bullish sentiment or speculative positioning.
PutDex
Measures the normalized price the put option that is precisely one standard deviation out-of-the-money (i.e., -16 delta), reflecting demand for downside exposure or for hedges. Elevated PutDex signals traders are paying a premium for downside protection. PutDex rising faster than CallDex is a classic sign of increasing bearish sentiment or hedging activity.
RiskDex
Measures directional expectations by comparing PutDex to CallDex as a ratio. A rising RiskDex value indicates increasing demand for downside protection relative to upside speculation. RiskDex is the most intuitive measure of option skew which is a valuable signal.
TailDex
Quantifies the cost of deep out-of-the-money tail risk protection — how much traders are paying to hedge against a large unexpected move. Elevated TailDex reflects heightened fear of an outlier event, often called a “Tail Event.”
Understanding the Technical Indicators
Classic technical analysis tools applied to daily price data to confirm or challenge the options-market signals.
RSI (14)
Relative Strength Index over 14 periods. Above 70 = overbought; below 30 = oversold. Measures the speed and magnitude of price changes to assess momentum.
MACD (12,26,9)
Moving Average Convergence Divergence. MACD line crossing above signal is a classic bullish signal; bearish when MACD crosses below signal line.
Stochastic (14,3)
Compares closing price to its price range over 14 periods. Above 80 = overbought; below 20 = oversold. A momentum oscillator useful for spotting reversals.
OBV
On Balance Volume. Cumulative volume indicator tracking buying and selling pressure. Divergence between OBV and price often signals a coming price reversal.
ADX (14)
Average Directional Index. Measures trend strength (not direction). ADX above 25 signals a strong trend; below 20 suggests a ranging market.
Moving Avgs (20,50,200)
Simple moving averages at 20, 50, and 200 days. Price above all three is broadly bullish. Golden Cross (50 above 200) and Death Cross (50 below 200) are key signals.
Bollinger Bands (20)
A 20-period moving average with bands 2 standard deviations above and below. Price at the upper band signals potential overbought; lower band signals oversold.
Learn
New to the signals, or want more from this tool? Start here.
Two lenses — options and price — in one read.
Read →FoundationsThe headline idea, and how to confirm it.
Read →FoundationsWhat each index adds to the read.
Read →FoundationsRSI, MACD, ADX and the rest, in plain terms.
Read →IntermediateDivergence is the signal worth trading.
Read →AdvancedMatch a structure to the read and the vol.
Read →DeskWeighting, data sources, and limits.
Read →FoundationsQuick answers and the vocabulary, defined.
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