A tool that converts every listed expiration's ATM straddle into an implied percentage move, then plots those moves across time. The resulting curve reveals where the market has packed extra premium for a known event — visible as a kink or bump in the otherwise smooth term structure.

Add the ATM call mid-price and the ATM put mid-price. Divide by 1.25 (to correct for the straddle-to-1SD ratio) then divide by the spot price. The result is the market's approximate one-standard-deviation move by expiration, expressed as a percentage.

A 1SD move captures approximately 68% of outcomes. About one-third of the time the actual move exceeds the implied move — up or down. The implied move is the central probability estimate of magnitude, not a ceiling or a guarantee. Never treat it as a cap; size your risk accordingly.

A kink is the bump in the implied-move curve at the expiration that first captures a known event. Variance is additive: the total variance an option prices equals the diffusive background plus the expected discrete variance of any event in its window. When one expiration captures an event and the prior one does not, its implied move steps up — producing the kink.

Vol crush is the rapid collapse of implied vol in the kinked expiration after the event resolves. The event premium that justified the kink disappears overnight because the uncertainty it priced has been resolved. Even if the underlying moves significantly, implied vol in subsequent expirations often falls sharply — the crush is about the resolution of uncertainty, not the size of the move.

No. The implied move is entirely about magnitude. The straddle profits whether the underlying goes up or down — provided it moves enough. The option chain does not tell you direction; it tells you the size of the move that is priced in. Treat implied moves as magnitude estimates only.

Compare the implied move at the kinked expiration to the implied move at the prior expiration (which is event-free). The excess — adjusted for the additional calendar days between the two — approximates the event's stand-alone contribution. The tool's marginal-move panel computes this automatically when the event-calendar feed is connected for that name.

Yes — and it is common in macro weeks. When FOMC and CPI both fall inside the same expiration window, that expiration carries the sum of both events' variance contributions. The curve shows one kink (the aggregate), not two separate kinks. To estimate individual contributions you need the historical event track for each event type.

For covered names, the tool shows whether the underlying has historically moved more or less than its implied event move across past events of the same type. An underlying that habitually under-delivers versus its implied move is a premium-selling candidate; one that habitually over-delivers is a premium-buying candidate. This track is listed as a pending feature for names outside the initial launch set.

Earnings dates and FOMC meeting dates are live at launch. CPI, PPI, PCE, and NFP release dates are pending connection. Individual company-specific events (analyst days, product launches) are also pending. The kink is always visible in the term structure; the automatic label requires the feed. See the methodology page for the current feed status.

No. The implied move is the market's priced-in estimate of the move. If the stock moves exactly the implied move, the straddle roughly breaks even (before commissions). To profit from owning the straddle, the actual move must exceed the implied move. The Implied-Move Calendar makes the hurdle explicit before you trade.

They are forward-looking companions. Event Volatility Isolation deconstructs the current VolDex® reading into baseline and event contributions — telling you how much of today's implied vol is just the calendar. The Implied-Move Calendar shows you which expiration is carrying that premium and by how much relative to its neighbors. Together they answer: how much event premium, in which expiry, and is the total implied move historically rich or cheap?

ETFs with the ETF Analytics tier; any optionable single name with the ETF + Equities tier. The full term-structure history and CSV export are available on the Everything tier. Earnings dates are supported for all optionable equities in the coverage universe; macro-event labels depend on the feed status described in the methodology page.