Implied-Move Calendar · Advanced
Free to readImplied-Move Alerts: When an Event Gets Pricey
You don't watch the term structure all day. You get told when a kink crosses a threshold on the names you care about.
A kink in the implied-move term structure is a threshold event: the event-expiration's implied move has stepped far enough above the smooth baseline to represent a meaningful premium over diffusive drift. That threshold is exactly the kind of crossing the Nations alert engine is built to monitor — so the chart watches itself and tells you when something worth examining has appeared.
What the alert watches
The alert engine monitors the implied-move term structure for each subscribed underlying in near-real time. It tracks two conditions: first, whether the kinked expiration's implied move has risen above a user-defined threshold (absolute percentage move, or multiple of the surrounding smooth baseline); second, whether an upcoming event has crossed within a configurable number of days. When either condition is met, the engine fires.
The implied move at the earnings expiration has crossed above 1.8× the smooth baseline — event premium is notably elevated versus surrounding expirations. Condition: kinked implied move ÷ baseline implied move > threshold.
A known event (FOMC decision) falls inside the nearest expiration window and is now 5 days away — the kink is building. Condition: named event ≤ user-set day threshold, kink visible in term structure.
The ratio of the kinked expiration's implied move to the smooth baseline rises as the event approaches and premium builds. When it crosses the alert threshold (dashed amber), the engine fires. After the event resolves, the ratio collapses — the alert does not re-fire on the way down unless reset.
Alert types
Two alert types are available. The kink-ratio alert fires when the kinked expiration's implied move reaches a specified multiple of the smooth baseline — useful for catching unusually rich event pricing before you have to decide whether to sell it. The event-proximity alert fires when a named event on the calendar is a configurable number of days away and a kink is present — useful for prompting you to look at a setup before premium peaks and liquidity thins.
How it is delivered
Alerts run on the Nations alert engine and dispatch by email or SMS when a condition is met. The engine polls the live option chain on a schedule matched to market hours. Alerts can be set per-underlying, per-event-type, and per-expiration horizon. Configuration is available in the alert-management panel of the tool.
A kink-ratio alert tells you that event premium has become elevated. It is a heads-up to look, not a signal to act. The premium may be rich for a good reason — an unexpectedly large earnings whisper, a policy decision with unusual uncertainty. Use the alert to pull up the calendar and evaluate; then decide whether the edge is real.
Understanding alerts is free. Setting them on your names rides the tier the underlying needs — ETFs with ETF Analytics, single names with ETF + Equities.
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Open the tool → Read: trading the implied move → Read: this week's implied-move read →Educational content from Nations Indexes. VolDex® is a registered mark of Nations Indexes. Alert availability and delivery depend on plan and configuration. Nothing here is investment advice.