This Week's Edition of Volatility Insights Is Abbreviated Due To the Holiday.
The Weekly Takeaway:
- The S&P 500 gained 3.36% this week thanks to a rally of 2.91% on Tuesday. The index is now down 3.84% for the year;
- The Nasdaq-100 gained 3.95% this week. It is now down 4.77% for the year;
- Crude oil futures rose 10.75% to close at 112.06;
- S&P 500 VolDex (ticker VOLI) fell 22.86% thanks to the equity rally and closed at 20.31;
- S&P 500 CallDex fell 39.62% this week to close at 11.10. This reinforces the idea that CallDex is a valuable contrary indicator because traders buy out-of-the-money calls when the S&P is falling sharply and they want to own volatility and sell those calls when the market turns and they need to exit those long vol positions;
- You can learn more about CallDex at Learn More About CallDex;
- Every 30-Day volatility metric for the S&P 500 with the exception of RiskDex was lower this week. RiskDex rose because CallDex fell so much more than PutDex. But RiskDex closing the week at 7.66 signals that traders are still deeply concerned about the direction of the S&P over the next 30 days;
- You can learn more about RiskDex at Learn More About RiskDex;
- VolDex on the Nasdaq-100 fell by 18.35% to close at 23.82. That is the 28th percentile of its 52-week range but as the high volatility levels experienced in April 2025 roll out of the 52-week window these percentile metrics will appear to deteriorate;
- The yield on Treasury Notes fell by 12.7 basis points to end the week at 4.313%;
- Volatility metrics for Treasury Bonds fell this week with the exception of RiskDex which rose 4.27%;
- The individual equities we cover all gained at least 1.89% this week with the exception of TSLA which fell by 0.34%;
- VolDex fell for the names we cover with the exceptions of AMZN, MSFT, and LLY;
- The Nations Indexes Optimism Index® rose by 8.70% to close at 65.75. Our Optimism Index is always available in real-time on our home page at NationsIndexes.com;
- You can always learn more about all our indexes at Learn More About Our Indexes.
Historical metrics (Average, median, 10th percentile, 25th percentile, 75th percentile, and 90th percentile) for all our indexes are available to subscribers at NationsIndexes.com.
Why It Matters…Historical data for all our indexes is available to subscribers at the Everything! level and they allow option traders to understand the context of the current option pricing environment. You have to understand what normal is in order to do so.
You can learn more about VolDex at Learn More About VolDex.
Nations Investor Optimism Index®:
The Investor Optimism Index® gained 8.70% this week to close at 65.75.
The index takes into account the current levels of S&P 500 VolDex, TailDex, and RiskDex and compares them to their rolling 2-year ranges. It is plotted on a 0 to 100 scale.
Our Optimism Index is now available in real-time on our home page at Nations Optimism Index.
Equities:
