Variance Risk Premium™
The persistent gap between what the options market charges for volatility and the volatility that actually shows up.
Implied today, realized tomorrow
The Variance Risk Premium (VRP) measures the difference between the volatility implied by option prices and the volatility a security subsequently delivers. When the premium is positive, option sellers were paid more for risk than the market ended up requiring; when it is negative, realized movement outran the market’s expectations.
VolDex® readings are 30-day forward-looking measures, and realized volatility is computed over the 30 calendar days immediately following that date. Aligning the two windows this way lets each VolDex® observation be compared directly against the volatility that actually materialized over the same horizon it was forecasting.
VolDex® vs. Realized Vol (30d)
Jan 15 – May 20, 2024 · annualized %Variance Risk Premium — Summary
| Ticker | Current VolDex® | Realized Vol (30d) | VRP | VRP Percentile | Avg VRP |
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New to the variance risk premium, or want more from this tool? Start here.
Implied minus realized — what sellers earn and buyers pay.
Read →FoundationsThe two vol lines, the premium, and its percentile.
Read →FoundationsThe sign tells who won; the percentile tells whether to play.
Read →DeskImplied vs realized, matched 30 days, ranked by history.
Read →AdvancedHarvest rich carry, respect the tail, trade the percentile.
Read →IntermediateRealized blows past implied — a year of carry repaid.
Read →IntermediateA year of rich premium, and the session that paid it back.
Read →AdvancedGet told when the premium gets rich — or inverts.
Read →FoundationsWho’s rich, who’s thin, who’s inverted across the ETFs.
Read →FoundationsQuick answers and the vocabulary, defined.
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