Alerts
Free to readTermDex® Alerts: When the Curve Crosses a Threshold
The educational layer feeds a live hook: when TermDex® crosses a percentile band for any underlying, you get a push. Here's the format and how to read one.
You don't have to watch the curve all day. TermDex® alerts fire when an underlying's reading crosses a meaningful percentile threshold — the moment the regime is actually changing — and hand you the read and the next step in one card.
When TermDex® crosses your chosen percentile, the alert fires. Illustrative — not live data.
What triggers an alert
Alerts are percentile-based, not absolute, for the same reason TermDex itself is: a raw level means little across different assets. A push fires when a reading crosses into a new band of its own history:
- Into stress. TermDex drops below its 10th percentile — the front is being bid up hard; the curve is inverting relative to this asset's norms.
- Into complacency. TermDex climbs above its 90th percentile — the market is unusually relaxed about the near term.
- Fast move. A large single-session change in TermDex, even within the bands — the regime is repricing quickly.
- Cross-asset divergence. One underlying crosses into stress while the index stays calm — the March 2023 pattern.
What an alert looks like
SPY TermDex crossed below its 10th percentile (1-year) at 11:32 AM CDT — down 9.1 vs prior close. The front of the curve has lifted above the back: near-term risk is being bid up.
Read: the curve has flipped toward backwardation. → Open the tool · Overlay 1 Week Ago · See the snap-back playbook.
Every alert carries the same four things: the underlying and direction, the reading and its move, a one-line read of the shape, and the next action — open the live curve, overlay a reference date, or jump to the relevant trade.
The note template
The same skeleton works for an email, a desk note, or a push. Fill the brackets:
[UNDERLYING] TermDex® crossed [into stress / into complacency / fast move] — now [VALUE], [CHANGE] vs prior close, [PERCENTILE] of its [LOOKBACK] history.
The curve is [inverting / steepening / flattening]: [one-line read].
Next: [open tool / overlay reference / relevant trade].
How to act on one
An alert is a prompt, not a trade. Open the live tool, confirm the shape against a reference curve, and decide whether the regime change is real or an event kink. A "into stress" push paired with a clean front-end inversion is the moment the snap-back setups become interesting; a "into complacency" push is a flag for anyone selling front premium.
Alerts are a live service on any paid plan (ETF Analytics and up); cross-asset history & CSV come with Everything.
See plans →Your next step
Open the VolDex® Term Structure tool → Manage your alerts → Read: TermDex® methodology →Educational content from Nations Indexes. VolDex® and TermDex® are registered marks of Nations Indexes. The sample alert uses illustrative values. Nothing here is investment advice.